Ferry in Wad Alhdad

Ferry in Wad Alhdad
Ferry in Wad Alhadad, Blue Nile
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torsdag 2 december 2010

Folkomröstningen i Sudan är en upprepad Kenyas och Rwandas scenario med mycket blod.



Konflikten mellan norra och södra Sudan är inte nytt och har pågått i flera decennier. Men den kommande folkomröstning och en sannolikt indelning av landet kommer att markera början på en långvarig ostabilitet i Sudan och hela regionen i den delen av Afrika. Den nya konflikten kommer att baseras tydligt på de begränsade naturresurserna, religion och identitet. Både sidorna rusta upp för krig och fortsätt fiendskap. Detta har redan manifesterat i en hel del incidenter, anklagelser och mot anklagelser under de senaste dagarna och det lär kommer fler kommer fler mer mindre än 38 dagar kvar till folkomröstningen. I början av november drabbades Sudans Arme och SPLA (Sudan People’s Liberation Army) samman i den södra delen av Blue Nile regionen. Tvisten gällde gränsen mellan norra och södra Sudan. En vecka senare bjöd södra Sudan’s regering Darfur’s rebeller till Juba mitt i förhandlingsprocessen i Doha. Detta gladde inte regeringen i norra Sudan och betraktades som en oacceptabel inbladning av SPLM i Darfur konflikten. I går dödades 12 soldater från SPLA i en ambush i Unity regionen. Det var en Miseriya rebellgrupp som misstänks ligger bakom attacken. Häromdagen anklagade Bagan Amum regeringen i Khartoum för stöd till militanta grupper och andra rebellgrupper för att destabilisera södra Sudan.

En tydlig tecken på att resultat av den kommande folkomröstningen kommer inte att godkännas av ärkefienderna är den pågående registreringsprocessen av södra sudaneser. Deltagandet i registreringen är så lågt på grund av hot och trakasserier från både sidorna. Detta gjorde att kommissionen har förlängt registreringsperioden med en vecka fram till den 8 december. Regeringen anklagar SPLA för hot och trakasserier av södra sudaneser som vill leva i och rösta för ett enat Sudan. Medan SPLM anklagar regeringen för mutor i registrering av södra sudaneser för att rösta för enat Sudan. Dessutom anklagar SPLM regeringen för förberedelse till en omfattande fusk i folkomröstningen genom att aktiv registrera folk från södra Sudan som bor i otillgängliga byar i norr för att sedan låta andra för att rösta i deras namn med förfalskade ID-handlingar.

Enligt fredsavtalet som signerades i Naivisha i Kenya i oktober 2005 och gav södra Sudan rätten att bestämma i en folkomröstning om de vill blida eget stat eller stanna kvar i ett enat Sudan, skall både sidor minska sina militära styrkor med 90000 soldater var. Än så länge är det bara ett par tusen som avväpnades och demobiliserades. Faktumet är att både SPLA och Sudans Armén rusta upp till tänderna. Detta har jag i alla fall sett i de områdena som jag besökte i Sudan nyligen.

Informationen från den norra delen säger att registreringsprocessen går utan risker för medborgare. Men det kommer inte att räcker till 60% för ett godkännandet av resultatet. Däremot är registreringen i södra Sudan i samtliga regioner är över 55%. Prognoserna säger att ca 80-90% kommer att rösta för separerat Sudan i söder medan siffran i norr kan vara mycket lägre.

Frågan är vad bli rollen för den internationella samfundet att se till att folkomröstningen går utan problem och sannolikt förhindra en blodig konflikt som kommer att liknar Rwandas folkmord eller i ett mindre skala massakern Kenya efter valet i december 2007. I Sudan finns mer än 30000 av FN och AU’s styrkor som kan vara en viktig aktör i Sudans konflikt.

På ett annat håll pågår en givarkonferens i Kuwait för rehabilitering av den grundläggande infrastrukturen i östra Sudan. Mer än en miljard dollar har utlovad av arabländerna, EU, Iran och andra länder. Denna Konferens tillsammans med förhandlingarna i Doha är ett försök att rädda Sudan från kollaps och fragmentering. Allt hänger nu på de första månaderna efter folkomröstningen och inom mindre än 6 veckor kommer Afrika att ha sitt Nord och syd Korea.

söndag 4 mars 2007

The concept of New Sudan

Summary

The article is written as response to Dr. Kursany’s article about the concept of New Sudan. I will argue that the use of the fiscal policy to compare the Sudan of the 60s with that of the 90 is not enough if not suitable. The article discuss also the development of the concept of the New Sudan. Although the concept is very new in the Sudanese politics but its development can be traced back through the last fifteen years. The emergence of the New Forces and the new generations are the main driving forces for a New Sudan.

As Kursany said: The post independence era has been characterised by severe struggle between its social forces and the political organs. Of course its the outcome and the results of this struggle which has been ignored or neglected and seldom debated by the Sudanese intellectuals. Yet, the outcome is not a sheer sectarian or either intellectual. The result is a shift in power, loss of control over the prime mover that drive the forces of struggle towards the reality of the last fifteen years and on. The genesis of the idea of New Sudan can be traced through the history of the struggle mentioned above. And the delivery of the “New Sudan” is still at its earlier stages of labor. A question to be asked here why a New Sudan? What has happened with the old one? to answer those questions I will elaborate on some concepts that entered the dictionary of the Sudanese politics and as an introduction to my argument for a New Sudan.

Immediately after the Intifada two new concept had been introduced in the political rhetoric language of the Sudanese politicians, namely the “sadana or sadanh” and the “New Forces”. The former refers to those who were participated in or supported the political apparatus of May regime. The later is controversial and defined according to where one stands from the now forces. Before the elections the sectarian political parties regarded the New Forces as the graduates of the universities and other high schools. To accommodate the New Forces in the political organ, mainly the parliament, the number of seats for the graduates has been increased. The results after the elections showed that both the SCP and the sectarian parties has nothing in the New Forces. Turabi and his followers won the first round. After the series of strikes which were arranged by the trade unions, Sadig and his government got the notion that the New Forces are in fact the trade Unions. In the left, the SCP saw the New Forces as part of the class struggle, but instead of speaking of classes and mainly the proletariat strive to control the power and rule - classes has been reduced to categories. For the SCP the New Forces are the workers’ trade unions, students, farmers and women. This kind of categorization has been also used earlier by the Sudanese Socialist Union (SSU) -the single political party that functioned as the primary political apparatus of the May regime - under the name “al-tanzimat al-fi’awia”. Those include, The Sudanese youth union, Sudanese women’s union, the alliance of workers and farmers, intellectuals, national capitalists and soldiers. The main idea behind the introduction of the model of “al-tanzimat al-fi’awia” is to absorb and keep under control the power of the New Forces at least for a time. Several attempts has been tried to introduce the agenda of the SSU through this kind of categorization in the universities, schools, clubs and governmental institutions.

If one put himself in the situation of the political parties one will realise that in fact it is very difficult to identify those New Forces. The programmes and the agenda of the political parties has failed to attract the new generations. In addition to this, and the most important is that party politics seemed unable to solve problems of economic development and the war in the south.

With the same political figures that proved to be unable to tackle the chronic problems of the Sudan sine the post-independence up to date, the call for a New Sudan is justified. Those who call for a New Sudan are those who has been disappointed in the political parties and tired from showy politics. Thus the use of term by the Umma, DUP and SCP is only as a hollow slogan that may bring them to the chair of rule and back to the old games of rat and cat. Using the term just keep them hanging on.

Strange enough, the political movement in the southern part of the Sudan was not regarded as part of the New Forces by any definition. As always southerners were regarded as backwarded, uncivilised, underdeveloped, uneducated, mutineers and all the worst. Nothing “new” can come from the South. At first the SPLM called for secession of the south as a solution for the problem of the South. But after 1986 and with the take over of the extreme right over the rule in Khartoum the SPLM appealed for the Sudanese that the problem is not the problem of the south but that of the center and the whole Sudan. It is a problem of injustices, ignorance and oppression practiced by the center. And for the SPLM, all kind of political systems, ideologies and agendas that existed in the center since the begging of this century belongs to the old Sudan. This of course include the alliance of today, mainly the Umma, SCP and DUP. The main task for the southern political movement has been transformed radically by the SPLM from a movement being driven by the cause and consequences of the mutiny of 1955 on a regional basis to a revolutionary and nationalistic movement seeking solution not only for the south but the whole country for New Sudan. For the SPLM the New Sudan “is a concept strives to establish a new cultural order in the country. It takes as point of departure the notion that human beings, in any given society, have equal rights and obligations regardless of color, etc. The establishment of the new cultural order demands of necessity or radical restructuring of state power to establish genuine democracy and to follow the path of development that will lead to far-reaching social changes” (Bulletin issued by SPLM on February 1989).

Still Sudan is governed by the same faces since its independence without success or positive political or socio-economic development. And still the same faces want to rule further without any right. Political leaders are changing only positions and political party names. Defectors are mixed with the Sadanah, communist with Islamists and democracy activists with dictators. The role of the state is undermined, not because of the forces of globalization but because of lack of constitutionalism and the rule of law. Sudan entered in a viscous circle of showy democracy and unavoidable military hegemony. A conflict in the country harvested more than one million lives and destroyed the natural and human resources of the country. This is only few of the features of the old Sudan that are challenging for the New Forces for their strive for a real political change and a New Sudan. With this background about the need for a New Sudan I will argue further that the use of the fiscal policy (in this case the exchange rate of the national currency and the foreign reserves of the country) as basis to compare the old Sudan and New Sudan is not enough if not unsuitable measure for a number of reasons which I will mention below. I will not discuss the model of the New Sudan of this government because enough has been written about how much the country is underdeveloped and bad governed under its rule.

If we use the exchange rate as an argument to how a political system is good or bad and thus to conclude that the Old Sudan is better than the New then the argument should continue as follows: The colonial government before the independence is better than the first democratic regime, Aboud era is better than the second democratic period, The 25th of May regime is better than the third democratic rule and This government is better than the last democratic era. But I think its not as simple as this. The economic crisis of the country escalated at the end of the 1970s as any developing country in Africa. The crisis are in fact a result of the development path chosen since independence. After the 1970 we observed a decline of the industrial output, a deterioration of overall growth performance and productivity, low prices of agricultural commodities, a decreasing saving capacity and declining investments rates, low wages, increased imports with high prices etc.. With the introduction of the structural adjustment programmes governments were advised, among others, to devaluate their currencies to the real values. As a result the exchange rates of the national currency increased by more that 10000 folds since the independence. At one hand this can be attributed to the function of the global market and at the other to inappropriate economic policies over a long time administered by the country’s native politicians which the world bank (1990) better described as a “constancy of policy failure in Sudan”. Parallel to this escalating economic crisis the political crisis started to gain momentum even before the 1970 and continued up to date.

The consequences of this economic and political policy of the old Sudan is an increasing poverty , structurally malformed economical system, chronic civil war and social unrest. All this necessitate a radical change of the political system and the economic policies that persisted sine the independence . Thus the high exchange rates of today do not imply the old Sudan is better and at the same time the Sudan of today is not the New Sudan that the majority are dreaming about.

There is a fundamental difference, I think, between the model of the New Sudan promised by the NDA in general and that of the SPLM and SAF in specific. Some of the NDA members are fundamental constituents of the old Sudan political system and have already used their cards. This is what create a sort of skepticism and suspicious around the New Sudan concept. And that is why the leaders of the NDA do not want to go further with the concept of New Sudan other than a secular state. The issue of secularism is only a hollow slogan and touches only the separation of the state from religion but never how to go about this separation. Secularism is the carrot for the horse to keep the struggle against Fundamentalism. As far as I know the SPLM and SAF have a clear ideas on the concept of the New Sudan. They want to have a Sudan that can accommodate all the diversity of the country; a real democracy where all people have the rights to chose how they want to be ruled and who showed rule; They want to have justice ,freedom, equality and rule of law; They want to develop the country socially and economically; they want to put an end to the South-North conflict; they want to keep the country united and powerful. Time-out for old Sudan politics.

Abu McNimmir
(Publihsed in May 1998)